The 5 Best Storylines of the 2011 NBA Playoffs

Anyone who has been following sports on TV, Twitter, or (if you are really old) the newspaper, has heard pundits speak ad nauseum about how exciting this year’s NBA playoffs have been.  Even going so far as to say the Heat/Sixers, Thunder/Nuggets and Bulls/Pacers series were great somehow completely neglecting the five game romps that the favored team executed in each matchup.  Yes, the games were competitive but come on, there just cannot be that much excitement in a series in which one team wins 80% of the games played.

Sifting through the overdone fluff pieces about the return of the excitement to the NBA, which are coincidentally a stark contrast to all that was written about how the migration of stars to major markets were ruining the league, there are some truly compelling stories in these playoffs.  The face of the NBA is changing.  The current crop of risings stars are incredibly easy to root for with their extraterrestrial skill levels and dumbfounding humility (hopefully it is now obvious I am not referring to LeBron James who is still only 26).  The fans are seeing a return to the glory days of the NBA…just in time for a significant lockout.

Here are the five most intriguing subplots to this point of the 2011 NBA Playoffs:

5. The Crumbling of the Spurs

Many fans of the NBA had been long predicting the demise of the league’s premiere organization due to the eroding skills of Tim Duncan, the wear and tear of Manu Ginobili’s whirling dervish routine on the court, and the undersized frontline that was a drastic departure from their previous championship teams.  It was evident in the last two postseasons when the Spurs were rather casually dispatched by the Mavericks and swept for the only time in theDuncanera by the upstart Suns last spring (the series that made Channing Frye roughly ten times more valuable than he really is). 

The Spurs’ strategy of resting aging but effective Tim Duncan ultimately backfired on them because the team started going through the guards first as opposed to the time honored winning strategy of playing inside out to their bevy of three point shooters. Duncancan still score but with the smallish lineup it is counterproductive to isolate him anymore because it moves the chance ofSan Antoniogetting an offensive rebound from slim to none.  They also could not take advantage of usingDuncan’s vision from the high post because none of their other forwards have the ability to finish at the rim. 

It is clear that this current roster can do no more than a “:07 or Less” era Phoenix Suns impersonation which means they turn regular season ecstasy into playoff agony on an annual basis.  To top it all off, Richard Jefferson is so terrible he is now impossible to trade signaling the biggest whiff in the reign of R.C. Buford as the team’s General Manager.  Hopefully the Spurs’ fans enjoyed the ride.  Without a miraculous overhaul, the team’s best days are at best temporarily behind them.

4. The Evolution of Z-Bo

To those who have watched him over the last decade, Zach Randolph has been more noteworthy for his penchant for troublemaking than his consistently productive performances on the court.  It is how a guy who is a walking double-double gets traded three times during his prime for what amounts to a heap of garbage. 

For those who have forgotten, here are the pieces involved in each of the Zach Randolph trades:

06/28/07: traded with Dan Dickau, Fred Jones and Demetris Nichols from the Blazers to the Knicks for Steve Francis, Channing Frye, and a future 2^nd round pick that became Omer Asik.

11/21/08: traded with Mardy Collins from the Knicks to the Los Angeles Clippers for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas.

(Author’s note: Z-Bo is the only currently active NBA player who was involved in this trade…and it happened two and a half years ago.)

07/17/09: traded to the Grizzlies from the Clippers for Quentin Richardson.

With his days as a malcontent seemingly behind him and a newfound awareness of other players on the court, Zach Randolph has been the most dominant force in the NBA this spring.  The Grizzlies even had the smarts to reward him with an extension during the playoffs, a tactic rarely seen this day and age.  He must continue his stellar play for the suddenly terrifying Memphis Grizzlies. 

3. Durant vs. Westbrook

Just about everyone who has watched one minute of one Thunder game can identify the best player on the team regardless of whether they are an ardent NBA follower or witnessing their very first basketball game.  It is that plainly, blatantly obvious.  Kevin Durant is a once in a generation physical specimen with highly evolved skills to boot.  Dirk Nowitzki is widely recognized as unguardable in the NBA and Durant has the same size and shooting touch only he also blends in elite quickness and athleticism.   

For these reasons it was a complete mystery to those who watched as Russell Westbrook did his best Stephon Marbury impersonation in Game 4 of the Nuggets series withDenveron the ropes.  Not only did he throw up that 12-30 offensive abomination but followed suit by going 3-15 from the field back in Oklahoma City with the momentum of the series in the balance.  It took a heroic crunch time performance from Durant, bested only by Z-Bo’s virtuoso Game 6 effort, to finally drive a stake through the Nuggets and win the franchise’s first playoff series since the team was hijacked fromSeattle.  Westbrook must learn to pick his spots better running the point because if Scotty Brooks is forced to use Eric Maynor it plays right into the hands ofMemphis.  The Thunder must be able to use a big lineup to combat the swarming Grizzlies defense or they will fall by the wayside in the same fashion as the Spurs.

2. Derrick Rose, Superstar

As Charles Barkley pointed out on TNT’s always outstanding studio show, the Bulls do not have a single player besides D-Rose who can create his own shot consistently.  Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng each come the closest but are also both vulnerable to big, athletic defenders.  Joakim Noah is at his best without the ball functioning as an agitator and has perfected batting the ball out to the three-point line while seemingly climbing all over defenders.   It is not really worth mentioning the collection of spot up shooters since without Rose’s drive and kick skills they are virtually worthless.  This is how Derrick Rose became the youngest MVP in league history.  It wouldn’t be fair to say he revamped his jump shot because it was never anything close to “vamped” before he took the initiative over the summer to eliminate the only weakness in his game. 

Part of what makes Derrick Rose so refreshing is that similar to Kevin Durant he has not let his ungodly basketball skills go to his head.  On top of that he is carrying his home town team to prominence much like a young, pre-“Decision” LeBron James.  After a summer that crushed the foolish notion by fans that players truly care about the fans over the organization, Rose has restored that very ideal, albeit no less delusional.  While the Derrick Rose era is still in its infant stages, thanks to hard work and great timing he is in position to insure that a statue in his own likeness will be erected outside theUnitedCenterone day.  Luckily for the Bulls,Chicagois a hell of a lot nicer thanCleveland.

1. Can’t Beat the Heat

Now that the playoffs have begun, there really isn’t an untested team (in the traditional sense) who is more playoff ready than the NBA’s very own “evil empire”, the Miami Heat.  Every single game they have played this season has been under the mass media microscope.  They have even had multiple instances lazily tagged with the suffix –gate (Bumpgate, Crygate) in what apparently signals an immense creativity void in today’s pseudo-scandal reporting. 

What the Heat have more than any other team in these playoffs is crunch time go-to guy diversity (D-Wade and to a lesser extent, LeBron), spot up shooters that actually hit the open shot (more or less the exact opposite of Richard Jefferson), and the only constant of their season which has been stellar team defense.  They have greatly benefitted by Danny Ainge murdering the Celtics with the Kendrick Perkins trade, and the even more horrific butchering of the Magic roster by Otis Smith.  The East went small and no one can go small more effectively than the Miami Heat. 

The stage is set for the team everyone loves to hate to coast into the Finals assuming LeBron doesn’t go catatonic once he sets foot inside the TD Ameritrade Boston Garden.  It may seem they would be overmatched by any of the remaining Heat opponents inside but it cannot be discounted that the last time Dwyane Wade played in the Finals he shot approximately 1,348 free throws and thwarted an obviously better team.

A Supposedly Fun Thing I’ll Never Understand

If anyone thinks the title sounds familiar, it is a play off of David Foster Wallace’s famous essay about his trip on a major cruise liner titled “A Supposedly Fun Thing I’ll Never Do Again.”[1]  As he weaves the reader through hilarious observations usually expounded upon in his famous footnotes, he explains all of the conventions of a typical cruise while analyzing every facet of the ship, its crew, and its passengers.  His thesis, I believe, is that a person should never let others dictate what they personally experience as fun or entertainment no matter what the status quo may be. 

As I read through his essay, my mind couldn’t help but wander towards social conventions that make me feel similarly bewildered by their universal appeal.  Certain activities carry a stigma that once implanted is difficult to remove.  The number one perpetrator of the aforementioned ill will is the concept of group dinners. 

A group dinner is defined as any gathering at a formal restaurant that includes a larger than average sized group of associated people (for the purpose of this argument that will be defined as more than eight, essentially the maximum number of people one can reasonably speak to while seated at a table).  I say associated people because they are not always friends.  Many times, especially with advanced age, it is largely couples who are connected to each other through mutual friends.  Typically there is an occasion being celebrated and some common group dinner instigators are birthdays, reunions, graduations or essentially any reason that calls for a bright spotlight to be shone on one or two of the members of the party.  These social gatherings can be observed at basically any large family restaurant and in most Applebee’s commercials.

Before I elaborate further, the anatomy of a group dinner goes something like this:

 -         A “group” determines a time and place to gather to celebrate whatever, typically via electronic invitation.

-         Those who can come respond giddily, and sometimes excessively. 

-         Women carefully coordinate their outfit so as to prepare for the clothes and accessories arms race that occurs whenever more than one woman does anything in public.  Guys, on the other hand, basically all dress the same with subtle variance.

-         When the time and date has arrived, the group meets in the bar of the restaurant, pleasantries are exchanged, seating arrangements are brokered, drinks are ordered, and a general atmosphere of merriment is conceived.

-         When the group is seated, and this is rarely on time, people jockey for position in the hierarchy of the table with the same fervor that children use to avoid the smelly kids at the elementary school lunch table.  The general rule is that all couples sit together and claim their territory in a musical chairs manner with the sphere of influence delineating from the center of the table.  Women are sneaky good at innocently staking out their seats in my experience.

-         The waiter introduces himself with his or her name and then says “If you need anything just yell at me.”  Not only do I rarely remember his or her name once they have uttered it but even more rarely does anyone actually carry out the waiter’s request (the title of waiter is an interesting one for this instance because at a group dinner the group does most of the waiting). 

-         As would be expected, it takes more time for the staff to accommodate a large group of people, so drink orders can take an inordinate amount of time to be filled.  The initial drink order is typically slow to arrive and the poor waiter or waitress is forced to deal with members of the party intermittently ordering drinks throughout the meal, greatly compromising said waiter’s or waitress’s ability to serve more than one table which they are literally always doing.

-         It is presumed that in the time it takes for the drinks and possibly appetizers to arrive that the group has collectively decided what each will be ordering as his or her entrée that evening.  I will go as far to say it is rude not to have said order in mind at this time. 

-         During the ordering process, multiple conversations are ongoing which can be both a blessing and a curse.  If fortunate enough to be seated near people who interest him or her then the time can move quickly.  However, for those not so fortunate or with attention deficit issues, it can be a trying situation as necks are craned back and forth as though one is watching a tennis match trying to figure out when and where to jump in to one of the multitude of conversations happening on either side of that person simultaneously.

-         Entrees arrive and the conversation halts as the lengthy wait caused by a dozen or so concurrent orders has returned some members of the group to primal instincts.  On the other side of the coin, some sheepishly pick at their food when it arrives because they filled up on the appetizer (the number one culprit for this condition is the chips and dip in a Mexican food restaurant).

-         Soon plates are cleared and the fun really begins: the check arrives.  There has been no greater breakthrough in the group dinner arena than the advent of machines which can split a bill in an infinite number of ways equally with a credit card.  This is almost too easy really.  There is no opportunity to short the bill or waste unnecessary time as the control freak in the group performs ball-point pen accounting on the back of a receipt.  If one is fortunate enough to know beforehand that it will be an even split arrangement, that indication is then a figurative green light to just hammer the bill with top shelf drinks as the burden of these orders will be spread evenly throughout the group like butter on toast.

Now for the previously mentioned elaboration:

THE INVITATION

I am as guilty as the next person for what I am about to point out.  Since it is always important to impress one’s peers, a competition begins the moment the first “reply all” message hits everyone’s inbox to outdo each other in terms of terse, witty responses indicating your participation or lack thereof.  Suddenly an avalanche of emails hit everyone’s inboxes, typically with repeat offenders (again, I have been guilty of this and have since made an effort to keep my opinions in an optional viewing format, i.e. this website).  It is wise to avoid using the email as a soapbox so if one must comment, and everyone appreciates something funny, keep it to a minimum and save the best material for the dinner.

SEATING

Never, ever, ever will I understand the purpose of dining with more people than I can speak to without the benefit of a walkie-talkie or other electronic communication device.  Literally anyone could be sitting on the other end of the table from me and it wouldn’t matter because we will not interact once during the duration of the multi-hour dinner process.  Not once.  It could be friend, relative, stranger, celebrity or transient and it would not make one damn bit of difference to my evening.  For this reason it is always important to choose wisely in terms of table positioning or the two hours or so at dinner will go by like weeks.

ORDER

Aside from being the hottest topic at the table once drink orders have been placed, this can be an opportunity for ridicule if a person’s tastes differ from particularly opinionated people seated in their immediate area.  I suppose they cannot enjoy their own meal unless they are insured that they know precisely what yours tastes like as well through preference or previous experience.  There is also the person, and because of gender rules it is rarely a female, who is drinking at a pace two to three times that of the rest of the table.  The foolish resent this person, while the savvy respect him.

THE CHECK 

In the days before the widespread acceptance of splitting checks via the use of multiple debit and credit cards, this was the most painstaking process of the evening and almost a reason to skip it all together.  We have evolved as people to where, within reason, an equal split should be the norm.  It eliminates those people who everyone know that somehow believe they are exempt from sales tax and tip and irreparably complicate the payment process.

(If the restaurant is cash only then one must questions the ethics of the ownership.  When this is the case there is typically an ATM machine inside the restaurant that is rogue to the banking system and charges fees to all comers.  The only other places that do this?  Strip clubs and seedy dive bars.)

The reason I didn’t fully adopt David Foster Wallace’s title for this piece is that I know I will do group dinners again.  Hard as I’ve tried to avoid them, the group dinner social convention juggernaut persists.  But I must assert that I have enjoyed myself at these gatherings and surely will again, as long as they are mostly bereft of the aforementioned annoyances that can be easily avoided in the anatomy of a group dinner.

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[1] It only seemed appropriate to footnote the link to David Foster Wallace’s essay, as anyone who decides to read it will soon find out: http://www.harpers.org/media/pdf/dfw/HarpersMagazine-1996-01-0007859.pdf.  Wallace battled depression his entire adult life, and ultimately hanged himself in 2008, so it the tone of his essay comes off as more than a bit cynical albeit candid and honest. 

a case for bowl games

This time every year holiday parties, e-mail chains, and basically any other social interaction bring a lot of people together who desperately need to make small talk to avoid the awkwardness of seeing someone you wouldn’t normally hang out with in a public setting.  If the subject changes to sports, which is likely as the topic has generated arguably the most small talk in modern history with the possible exception of the weather, it will likely center around the need for a playoff in college football.  A vast majority of people like the idea of a playoff (since it has worked in every other sport) and will voice that opinion when provoked, especially if aided by a nearby television displaying a random, non-regional bowl matchup.

I have always been in favor of the bowl system but this year there is a particular reason why that is so.  This year the Washington Huskies are going to a bowl for the first time since late December of 2002 when they went to the Sun Bowl. 

So really it is three victories for the program:

1)      They are going to a bowl game which provides advantages like extra practice time allotted as well as rewards for the players on a non-losing season (they are 6-6). 

2)      They don’t have to send the team back to El Paso which I think is roughly as dangerous as most of Afghanistan right now (and resembles the area geographically).

3)      The curse of Mark Meroney has been lifted.

The Huskies downtrodden football program’s nosedive into irrelevance began essentially when I decided I would be attending the University of Washington.  Shortly after I sent all of my registration information into the school, Rick Neuheisel was dismissed after a mountain of secondary violations made his participation in a March Madness bracket pool a fireable offense.  He had been the face of the program and was only two seasons removed from riding Marques Tuiasosopo all the way to a Rose Bowl victory, the school’s only BCS bowl appearance to date.  The school shuffled in portly offensive coordinator Keith Gilbertson and we all watched as the foundation of the program began to crack.

That Huskies team featured All-American candidates Cody Pickett and Reggie Williams who formed what was thought to be the most dangerous passing threat in the Pac-10.  The problem was…neither was really that good.  Reggie had immense physical talent, but with an outsized ego to match.  Pickett, simply put, was not as talented as his numbers suggested.  Whether it was having NFL talent to throw to or the then-renowned quarterback guru Rick Neuheisel coaching him up, he was not nearly as good in person as he was on paper.

The season began with a thud at Ohio State and had several bumps along the way.  There was the second half shellacking they took from UCLA in early October.  Then they lost the Nevada at home, convincingly, in a steady rain.  Meanwhile, USC and California had emerged as conference powerhouses.  It was shaping up to be the worst season in at least a decade but then there was a glimmer of hope against Oregon.

In a November night game the Huskies overcame the loss of Cody Pickett due to injury and blew out the rival Oregon Ducks at Husky Stadium.  At the time there was a huge relief amongst the fans because backup quarterback and top recruit Casey Paus played well in relief of Pickett and the team had steamrolled a solid Oregon squad.  Husky fans had no idea how foolish it would be to think that this was the first step back towards football success.  It was anything but, actually. 

The next year they fell to 1-10. 

Then they replaced the coach and doubled their previous win total…to 2-9. 

In 2006, coincidentally my senior year in college, they threatened respectability before an injury to Isaiah Stanback derailed hopes for a bowl game.  For my incoming class in college, and several more to follow at Washington, the once-proud football team had qualified for a bowl a grand total of zero times in our collective four years on campus.

The next year was filled with hope, a sad but repetitive trend on Montlake Boulevard.  It is said that the definition of insanity is to try the same thing over and over but expect a differing result.  Well every fall the Huskies tried like hell to field a competitive team, but all they did was drive their fans insane.  There was the ballyhooed debut of Jake Locker, prized recruit and pro prospect, but that only served as a tease each September before the team succumbed to sucking by the time daylight savings rolled around. 

What developed was a tradition of tragic performances.  The team always seemed to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory.  On it went before bottoming out spectacularly with a winless season in 2008 after Jake Locker suffered a broken wrist and could not return.  Tyrone Willingham was relieved of his head coaching duties after failing miserably to show any progress with the team back that would suggest they were on their way back to the level the fans and regents had come to expect since Don James took over as head football coach in the late seventies. 

In walked Steve Sarkisian.  The energetic young coach, in only his second full year on campus, has sold himself to the fans and sold his plan to recruits up and down the west coast.  His first team was coming off the aforementioned 0-12 season and rebounded respectably to finish 5-7.  This season, thanks to what has to be the only team in America to win three separate games as the clock hit zero, he has advanced the school back to a bowl game since Neuheisel left office. 

Before I get too far ahead of myself here I want to point out that I realize finishing 6-6 to sneak into a bowl at the cutoff line is not exactly a reason to line the streets for a parade.  Seventy teams earned the right to go to a bowl game this fall, which is more than the amount who did not get to go bowling.  It really sucks the accomplishment out of making a bowl when by doing so you are in the majority of Division I football programs.  However, getting to play the game still has incredible meaning to the fans of the program, even if not the fans of college football at large. 

None of this is possible in a playoff system.  If there were a playoff, none of the Huskies final three victories, all coming in dramatic fashion in the fourth quarter, would have been rendered meaningless before the first kickoff.  Instead, the program used the three-game stretch to build interest with the fans and earn a reward for finishing the season on their longest conference win streak in years.

(Unfortunately their reward is to play Nebraska fresh from a stinging defeat in their final Big 12 Championship Game and who waxed Washington 56-21 in September.  As if that isn’t enough, the Huskers are also on the Huskies’ schedule in 2011…in Lincoln.  So by next December the two schools will have met three times on the football field in the span of twelve months, and all indications would suggest Nebraska will win all three meetings.  Yikes.)

Washington certainly isn’t the only school that is just happy to land a bowl game.  There are examples around the country in fact.  All of whom would not have been a factor in a playoff system but nonetheless have the opportunity to end their season with a victory, which is something that only happens to one team in a playoff.  Before mindlessly begging for a playoff, even if only to have something to talk about with the co-workers you don’t even really like, remember the Huskies.

Life After Muschamp

In one of the great coups in the history of defensive coordinators coming off of a losing season, Will Muschamp was hired by the University of Florida as their newest head football coach yesterday.  Immediately in Austin, the sky began to fall and the locusts began to swarm.  Or maybe it just seems that way.  Internet message boards and radio call boards lit up with the fan base’s woe and despair from losing their beloved “coach in waiting” (whatever that actually meant).

Most fans are more familiar with the idea of a football coach than what it actually takes to be successful.  The drill sergeant types, the persona painted of Muschamp from his sideline antics that include ripping a headset off so fast it cut his ear, are typically well received by the masses.  After all, if he yells that means he cares right?  Fans want the intensity from someone who controls the team to resemble their own while unofficially coaching the team from the couch or stands every Saturday in the fall. 

Muschamp looked the part of a football coach better than any coach Texas has had under Mack Brown.  From his southern frat boy hairdo, to his southern drawl, to his self-deprecating humor and humility in press conferences, and most of all to his sideline scowl, Will Muschamp was the perfect football coaching aesthetic.  But how did he rate as a coach? 

In his three years on campus in Austin, Muschamp was often lauded for his motivational tactics as well as the performance of his defenses.  When he arrived he inherited a talented defense that had struggled to defend the pass in their single season with Duane Akina calling the plays.  Muschamp’s arrival was lauded by local and national media as he had long been a rising star both for his strong defensive units as well as his popular sideline antics. 

In his first year at the helm, the team finished 13-1 punctuated with a victory over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.  Muschamp had endeared himself to the rabid Longhorn fan base and improved the defense in nearly every relevant statistical category from the debacle that was the previous season (debacle is loosely used, as the team finished 10-3 in 2007).  The team feared that his charisma and tactical acumen would make him a hot commodity for various head coaching vacancies. 

In fairness, they were right. 

In order to keep him the University named him “head coach in waiting” in hopes that the figurative pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that was having one of the most prestigious (and well paid) posts in college football would keep him on campus.  It was an unprecedented move by the University of Texas, but had become a popular designation around the college football landscape as a method of maintaining coaching staff continuity.  It worked.

His next season was the pinnacle of his brief tenure with the Longhorns.  His defense had the most takeaways, thirty-seven, of any in the Mack Brown era at Texas.  They finished the regular season undefeated for the second time in Brown’s thirteen years and played Alabama for the BCS National Championship.  They ultimately lost that game when Colt McCoy was hit precisely in the wrong spot on his right arm and rendered useless barely a few plays into the game for him.  However, with the help of the stingy defense and the surprising play of a true freshman quarterback, the Longhorns had come close to pulling it out in the second half before ultimately crumbling with late turnovers.

This past season is when everything changed.  In his third year controlling the defense, blemishes began to show in the program.  The offense struggled mightily, but the defense was not nearly as good either.  Muschamp’s unit was fortunate that their shortcomings were masked by the offense and so flew under the fan and media radars, respectively.  Texas was getting punished on the ground, which was an area where the Longhorns had previously dominated under Muschamp.  In fact, in examining the chart below pulled from NCAA statistical archives, the defense had regressed in every single area.  The team finished 5-7, losing six of their final seven contests (a stretch that featured four losses in the final five home games).

Here is a chart comparing rush yards allowed, pass efficienct defense, scoring defense, and takeaways for all of the defenses of the Mack Brown era at Texas

Year	Coordinator	Rushing	Pass Efficiency	Scoring	Takeaways
1998	Carl Reese	143.5 ypg	138.7	29.6 ppg	21
1999	Carl Reese	105.7 ypg	101.6	20.6 ppg	33
2000	Carl Reese	94 ypg	88	17.9 ppg	33
2001	Carl Reese	89.5 ypg	88	13.7 ppg	28
2002	Carl Reese	142.5 ypg	96.1	16.3 ppg	35
2003	Carl Reese	152.5 ypg	106.5	21.5 ppg	29
2004	Greg Robinson	107.4 ypg	114.3	17.9 ppg	23
2005	Gene Chizik	130.9 ypg	96.7	16.4 ppg	27
2006	Gene Chizik	61.2 ypg	131.8	18.3 ppg	32
2007	Duane Akina/Larry Mac Duff	93.4 ypg	127.5	25.3 ppg	27
2008	Will Muschamp	83.5 ypg	124.2	18.8 ppg	16
2009	Will Muschamp	72.4 ypg	100.5	16.7 ppg	37
2010	Will Muschamp	138.6 ypg	118.9	23.7 ppg	18

The exact cause of this slide towards mediocrity was somewhat unclear, but fans and media largely blamed the offense and particularly long-beleaguered offensive coordinator Greg Davis.  Davis had long been the bane of the fan base’s existence for his conservative approach (nevermind that nine of the school’s ten best offensive seasons ever came under his watch).  For Texas fans, it was no coincidence that Greg is a four-letter word.  While the criticisms of the offense (and especially the development, or rather lack thereof, of supposed stud Garrett Gilbert) were warranted, the defense was largely to blame for the downfall as well. 

What made the dissolution of the defense so puzzling was how seemingly easy it was to do for opponents.  UCLA came into Austin and hammered Texas on the ground with simple option plays, amassing 264 yards on the ground and only needing a measly 27 passing yards to defeat the then seventh-ranked Longhorns in the most lopsided home loss of Mack Brown’s career.  This was only the tip of the iceberg it turned out. 

Here is a look at the rushing and passing totals of each of Texas’s seven losses on the season: 

Opponent	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Final Score
UCLA	264	27	34 – 12
(8) Oklahoma	124	236	28 – 20
Iowa State	199	136	28 – 21
(25) Baylor	109	219	30 – 22
Kansas State	261	9	39 – 14
(10) Oklahoma State	123	409	33 – 16
(17) Texas A&M	238	128	24 – 17

It is not hard to see that the team struggled to contain the run in losses.  Muschamp had led Texas to the top of the heap in all of college football the previous year in terms of rushing yards allowed, but most of the offenses he had faced had run a pass-heavy system that did not allow for many traditional running plays.  When opposing coaches looked across the line, they saw a speedy and somewhat undersized defense.  Whenever that is the case, conventional wisdom says to run right at them instead of daring to go around them.  Boy did they ever. 

Conveniently (and unfairly) Muschamp and the rest of the defensive staff largely escaped the blame as well as the ire of a passionate fan base.  In the spring, the defense had been lauded by Mack as the best he had ever had in his time in Austin.  It would appear at least seven head coaches would disagree. Somehow it was all Greg Davis’s fault in the eyes of the fans and the media.  The popular theory was that the turnover happy offense continuously put the defense in quagmires with their frequent and inopportune giveaways.  In many cases this was a fair argument.

But where were the takeaways?  Will Muschamp has the unique distinction of coaching defenses with the most and least turnovers gained in the Mack Brown era.  In two of his three seasons at Texas, Muschamp’s defense posted the two lowest takeaway season totals since 1998.  Certainly it is a small sample size to draw from but the numbers suggest that typically the Longhorns struggled to turn over the opponent under Muschamp.  These results came despite him being credited for the creation of so many exotic blitzes designed to do precisely that.

So how much will the Longhorns really miss Muschamp?  His body of work at Texas was certainly strong overall, but not nearly as bulletproof as one may have believed considering the mild hysteria created in Austin and with Texas fans everywhere by his departure.  In examining the team’s performance this season it was clear that things needed to change, but no one was willing to admit that things could stand to change on the defensive side of the ball in addition to the much maligned offense. 

History suggests that Texas is going to be just fine.  The University of Texas has the highest football revenues of any institution in Division I.  With great revenues comes the ability to hire great coaches.  There is no reason to believe that this will not be the case, just as it was when each defensive coordinator departed before him.

What complicates all of this is Muschamp’s former “coach in waiting” status.  Fans believed him to be a borderline messianic figure that would take the wheel after Mack’s retirement and never let his foot off the gas pedal.  The truth is that while Muschamp is a promising head coach, he is in no way a proven success.  He has not been a head coach at any level to this point in his still young coaching career.  When the time comes for Mack Brown to step aside, the University will have a long line of suitors with immense experience and success as a head coach.  Muschamp was merely a potential answer, but not the answer for the Texas Longhorns. 

There is much uncertainty in the Texas football program at the moment with the departures of so much of what had been an incredibly successful coaching staff.  What is certain is that Mack Brown knows how to bring the Longhorns back to prominence because that is what he did when he took over a floundering program back in the late nineties.  No one could have anticipated the team would have this much of a shakeup in their coaching staff after the dismal 2010 season, but everyone who observed the program knew drastic measures were in order.  Texas will have the pick of the litter in filling all of the current vacancies and will again be one of the top programs in America sooner rather than later.

weekly line-up finale

After a brief holiday hiatus this is my last chance to break even or better picking college and pro football games.  I am certainly close, but the dreaded 0-4 always looms around the corner. 

Here are the season records for all categories:

NCAA: 21-22-1

NFL: 22-22

OVER/UNDER: 7-3-1

Keeping an eye on so many point spreads has really made me appreciate the work of oddsmakers.  It is remarkable that they can manipulate so much of the way a game is perceived and watched with absolutely no connection to the teams whatsoever.  They value the football market like commodity brokers on Wall Street.  And they do it well.  Astonishingly well really for what are supposedly random outcomes.  This final week of the college season is the last chance to beat them.

NCAA

SOUTH CAROLINA (+5.5) over AUBURN

(SEC Championship Game – Atlanta, GA)

In a stunning contradiction of the Reggie Bush investigation, the NCAA ruled that Cam Newton’s father acted independently of his knowledge in seeking financial reward in exchange for his son’s commitment to play football.  Steve Spurrier has been waiting for this chance on the big stage since becoming the head coach at South Carolina.  He seems to excel in opportunities to remind people that he is Steve fu$%ing Spurrier and he has been here before.  South Carolina nearly beat the Tigers back in September and will not be intimidated this Saturday in Atlanta.  The Gamecocks may not win but this will be a game that comes down to the bitter end.  Fortunately for Auburn, they haven’t blinked in a close game yet.

OKLAHOMA (-4) over NEBRASKA

(Big 12 Championship Game – Dallas, TX)

Part of what made Nebraska’s zone read offense so effective was that they did not run it really until the Holiday Bowl massacre against Arizona in last year’s final game.  When they opened up the season with it, the schemes all worked perfectly and the offense was lighting up scoreboards.  However, in losses to Texas and Texas A&M the Huskers had great difficulty outrunning a speedy defense.  Those two teams each both had success running the ball against Nebraska’s defense as well.  Oklahoma can look to exploit this run defense deficiency with DeMarco Murray, arguably the conference’s most talented back.  Bob Stoops won’t blow his last chance to beat Nebraska for the Big 12 title.

VIRGINIA TECH (-3.5) over FLORIDA STATE

(ACC Championship Game - Charlotte, NC)

Ever since a humiliating home loss against James Madison University, the Hokies have quietly won ten consecutive football games.  Frank Beamer’s bunch is winning in classic Virginia Tech style: a dual threat quarterback and opportunistic defense that is tied for twelfth in the country in turnovers gained.  Florida State is a team that shows flashes of brilliance, on offense especially, but also has a habit of turning the ball over with twenty giveaways on the season.  Teams that are prone to mistakes do not fare well against Virginia Tech.

OREGON (-16.5) over OREGON STATE

I am going to miss this particular Oregon team.  This is the most explosive ground offense since the juggernaut Nebraska teams of the mid-nineties who were steamrolling over opponents out of the I-formation.  The team rarely huddles with their break-neck pace on offense that wears opponents down in the latter parts of the game opening holes for their lightning quick backs and receivers.  This tactic will work to perfection this weekend as well.  Oregon State just doesn’t have enough ammo on defense to stop Oregon’s option onslaught. 

NFL

BUCCANEERS (+3) over FALCONS

I just cannot bring myself to go against Josh Freeman as an underdog in a home game.  Atlanta has won a few close games in a row but you can only be so lucky for so long.  Tampa Bay is riding the emotional tidal wave produced by being the team no one picked to do anything remotely positive.  The Bucs are the best bad team in football.

LIONS (+5) over BEARS

This is the revenge game for the ludicrous ruling on Calvin Johnson’s would have been game winning touchdown catch in the opening week of the season.  Detroit is fresh from a Thanksgiving Day home shellacking at the hands of New England but should have already beaten the Bears once this season.  Also, and there is nothing to suggest this other than my own gut instinct, Jay Cutler is due for a train-wreck game where he sulks around the sideline speaking fluent bitch. 

COWBOYS (+5.5) over COLTS

The Colts are a shell of their former selves.  Decimated by injuries on both side of the ball, Peyton’s margin for error is as small as it has been in a decade.  Not helping the matter is that in each of their last two losses he has thrown a total of seven interceptions against only six touchdown passes.  They are likely asking too much from him, which previously seemed impossible.  The Colts should win a field goal game but the Cowboys are talented enough to give a depleted team like Indianapolis fits.

SEAHAWKS (-6) over PANTHERS 

Carolina is making a strong case for worst overall team in pro football.  They slipped to 1-10 last week as they could not even allow Jake Delhomme to beat his own team.  Seattle is not a good place for a bad team to play with the history of dead ball penalties by opposing teams in Qwest Field.  This game should be ugly but the Seahawks will win a low scoring affair and start conversations in Charlotte about who to draft this spring.

OVER/UNDER

WASHINGTON/WASHINGTON STATE UNDER 54

This is the biggest Apple Cup game since 2003.  That was the last time either team participated in a bowl game sadly.  This weekend they will square off in frosty Pullman where the temperatures will dip below freezing.  Neither team features a particularly explosive offense this season which will be even more noticeable in the inclement weather.  Any time teams are playing field position football it is a good game to go under.

weekly line-up

I’m just happy I posted a week where I won more than I lost overall.  Only a few weeks left to get these all above the .500 mark.

LAST WEEK

NCAA: 3-1

NFL: 2-2

OVER/UNDER: 1-0

SEASON

NCAA: 20-20

NFL: 18-22

OVER/UNDER: 6-3-1

Utah decided to pay TCU back for the massacre in Salt Lake City by half-assedly dropping their next game to lowly Notre Dame by over three scores on the road.  What initially looked like a great win against a top 10 program now must be reexamined once Utah was immediately hammered the next week by a team with a losing record.  Meanwhile Oregon State lost to the even more pathetic Washington State Cougars which hinders the credibility of a season opening neutral site win by the same TCU Horned Frogs.  TCU is being sabotaged by their schedule now and I have time to write about it because I won all three of the other games I picked in college last Saturday for the first time since September.

I was pretty lucky to scrape out an even record in the NFL and still am admittedly clueless as to how anyone picks these games well.  Tom Brady delivered one of the season’s best “eff you” performances and just roasted what is actually an excellent Steelers’ defense.  It’s hard to complain about losing the Indianapolis game. I was just as unlucky there as I was lucky that Nick Folk missed so many field goals leading up to Santonio Holmes taking a slant route to the house in overtime for the Jets. 

NCAA

MICHIGAN STATE (-19.5) over PURDUE

Aside from the hiccup in Iowa City, the Spartans have been one of the country’s most consistent teams offensively.  They have scored thirty or more points in eight of their ten contests.  Purdue, on the other hand, has had a difficult time getting the offense going this season after Robert Marve’s injury thrusted true freshman Sean Robinson into the starting job.  Purdue has had the most difficulty moving the ball through the air and things won’t get any easier against one of the conference’s most opportune defenses.  With the game in East Lansing, Michigan State should have no problem pulling away in the second half.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+21) over TEXAS

I wouldn’t bet on Texas winning a football game by twenty-one points versus any team in America right now.  That is not to say they won’t win, because I believe they will, but this particular Longhorns team is not capable of the kinds of blowouts the team was issuing the last few years in Austin.  This Texas offense is the worst I can remember and most certainly the worst of Greg Davis’s Texas career.  If Texas does not impress this weekend then the win will be treated like a loss by the dejected legions of Longhorn fans wallowing in a lost season.

ARKANSAS (-3) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Every time I watch Ryan Mallett I see some of the Philip Rivers cocky white trash persona in the way he carries himself.  Some guys just look like a-holes whether they deserve the distinction or not.  Jay Cutler looks like one, and lives right up to it.  No telling on Mallett but he certainly fits the bill.  Also, like those two professionals he has a rocket arm and this Arkansas team that had to play Auburn and Alabama early is clicking.  Mississippi State is a vastly improved team but they do not have the firepower to match up with the Razorbacks.

NORTHWESTERN (+8) over ILLINOIS

Northwestern is one of those teams that sound like they should be a lot worse than they are and so are underestimated by everyone.  Even when they have lost this season they are never blown off the field which is a tribute to their good young coach Pat Fitzgerald (one of the first head coaches whose playing career I can remember).  Illinois is experiencing the same kind of end of season swoon that has plagued them the last two years.  Including this year they only have two total wins in November since 2008.  Northwestern  will continue to be a thorn in the side of the entire conference.

NFL

STEELERS (-7) over RAIDERS

Pittsburgh is still smarting from the beating they took last weekend from a fired up Patriots squad.  Oakland has to fly across the country and play at what feels like 10:00 AM on their body clocks.  The morning game for a west coast team always increases the chances that team comes out flat to start the game.  To top off the existing issues from travel the Raiders are walking into a veritable hornet’s nest at Heinz Field this weekend.  The Steelers can stop the run with their famous 3-4 alignment and the Raiders don’t have a passing game to turn to like the Patriots did last weekend.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over LIONS

Nothing gets the blood flowing like two crappy teams squaring off in a matchup of backup quarterbacks.  This pick is weighted equally on the Cowboys showing some signs of life last weekend and that the Lions are ravaged by injuries.  The Cowboys were losing, but they were losing close.  Now that everyone’s job is clearly on the line after a disastrous beginning the mistakes should clean up and the Cowboys should look more like the team who was a preseason Super Bowl pick. 

BILLS (+6) over BENGALS

This week’s game gives the Bengals a chance to truly hit rock bottom.  What would be a better “cherry on top” moment for the dissolution of the Bengals than to lose at home to a mostly winless Bills team?  The Bengals are in a state of complete disarray, evinced by the fact Terrell Owens has taken over as the voice of the locker room.  No telling how much longer Carson Palmer needs to suck before he gets benched for his little brother.

BUCCANEERS (+3) over 49ERS

Josh Freeman just covers spreads.  The guy flew under the radar in college but has always looked the part of an elite professional quarterback.  Slowly but surely he is playing his way into that role.  After years of rotating stiffs in and out of the lineup Tampa Bay has finally found an answer.  When a team’s quarterback play sucks out loud for so long it forces them to overcompensate in other areas to stay competitive.  When they play at that position improves dramatically that is when a team makes the leap.  By the way, San Francisco is still waiting for that quarterback.

OVER/UNDER

COLTS/PATRIOTS OVER 50

Still the two best quarterbacks in the league, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady won’t likely be settling for field goals this Sunday.  Neither team features a stellar defense this season although the Patriots are coming off one of their stronger performances in shutting down Big Ben and the Steelers.

weekly line-up

Again, last week was not exactly an encouraging one for my quest to look like I at least mildly know what I’m talking about.  I’m starting to think this is just the lost football season.  All of my favorite teams suck, my fantasy team is atrocious, and my college pick ‘em league performance is mediocre at best.

LAST WEEK

NCAA: 1-3

NFL: 2-2

OVER/UNDER: 0-1

SEASON

NCAA: 17-19

NFL: 16-20

OVER/UNDER: 5-3-1

So the Utah pick didn’t really work out too well.  Actually, other than when the game was tied at zero for the first five minutes Utah was never within five points over the course of the sixty minute game.  Then there was underestimating Stanford who apparently turned a corner in dismantling Washington and has officially shaken off the disappointing loss at Oregon.  Those were just bad picks but missing on Nebraska took some bad luck.  Taylor Martinez, who essentially constitutes the entire Nebraska offense, was a game-time scratch from the lineup.  ABC actually led their telecast with this crushing blow to anyone who had taken the Cornhuskers to handle Iowa St and my stomach instantly sank.

Anytime I don’t post a losing record in the NFL it is a moral victory but I am going to need to finish strong for a respectable season mark.  Who knew the Browns could beat the Saints and Patriots in consecutive weeks?  Watching McCoy just win games for them it makes a lot more sense why the Longhorns suck so bad this fall without him.  As for Minnesota I believe it was shortly after I posted the pick that everyone learned how much the Vikings hate Brad Childress.  In fact, his confrontation over an MRI with Percy Harvin was reportedly close to coming to blows.  I wonder how many seconds old Chilly could remain standing in that fight? 

To cap things off I am continuing to dent my over/under record and it’s retreating to mediocrity now as well.

NCAA

NORTHWESTERN (+9.5) vs. IOWA

Anyone who follows college football knows that ESPN treats us all to watching about half of Northwestern’s games each season with their noon eastern game slot each Saturday.  Having seen such a large sample of games to draw from I can tell you that it is not easy to win in Evanston in November.  It could be the high winds or the rest of the conference’s tendency to overlook the Wildcats but they always put up a fight in their home stadium.  There is also the fact that Northwestern has beaten the Hawkeyes each of the last two seasons, including ruining Iowa’s perfect season last November.  I expect Iowa to win a close game but the outcome should be in doubt well into the fourth quarter.

ALABAMA (12.5) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mississippi State is going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time this Saturday.  Nick Saban has to be hopping mad after getting beat by his former school and the man who replaced him in Baton Rouge last week.  Alabama has been a juggernaut at home this season with their average margin of victory coming in at 26 points per game.  The Bulldogs are much improved in Dan Mullen’s second year on the job but have also benefitted from a rather weak schedule the last several weeks.  They don’t now, and really may never have the talent that Alabama will put on the field this Saturday and are walking into a hornet’s nest with the Tide coming off a disappointing loss that knocks them permanently out of the BCS title game discussion.

UTAH (-5.5) over NOTRE DAME

This pick may seem puzzling as the Utes just got their asses kicked at home but I am a believer in the bounce back game.  Notre Dame has had a very hard time for about the last decade with spread offenses and it should be no different this weekend, even in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus.  Notre Dame is still coping with the tragedy of a student falling to his death from a camera tower in high winds and as a result the entire football administration has way more important issues to resolve than this highly disappointing version of the Fighting Irish.  The only silver lining in Notre Dame’s lost season, and this is solely related to on the field happenings obviously, is that the last time a new head coach had a losing record in his first season his name was Lou Holtz and he ended up doing just fine in South Bend.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-5.5) over TEXAS

No one in Austin can figure out what Vegas thinks they know setting this line anywhere in the single digits.  Oklahoma State brings the best all-around offense to Austin this weekend that Texas has seen all year and the Longhorns simply cannot match a good offense this season.  Texas has not scored more than 24 points in a game since the second week of the season.  The Cowboys have not missed a beat this season after all of the talk in the offseason was that they would be way down with the loss of so many talented offensive players.  Many in Austin are secretly hoping Oklahoma State puts on an offensive fireworks display that forces the Texas powers that be to take a long look at replacing Greg Davis with Dana Holgerson.

NFL

STEELERS (-5) over PATRIOTS

The Patriots have become increasingly one dimensional on offense and no longer have the deep threat to open up the middle of the field consistently for their litany of smallish white receivers.  Belichick and crew have had a difficult time on the road and going to Pittsburgh is probably the most difficult road trip in the NFL this season.  Normally the Patriots don’t lose back to back games but the chips are really stacked against them playing the best defense in the league.

BRONCOS (+1) over CHIEFS

This is essentially a coin-flip game so I will go with the home team in any scenario like that involving a divisional matchup.  Kyle Orton has been sneakily efficient all season and is a bona fide fantasy sleeper stud.  The Chiefs have plenty of explosive weapons on their revamped offense but have sputtered the last few weeks against the lowly Bills and in Oakland.  The Broncos are coming off a bye week after a somewhat embarrassing loss overseas so they will be ready to play as well.

JETS (-3) over BROWNS

This is where the Browns magic will end, but only because the spread severely undervalues the Jets.  The Jets have struggled the last few weeks but still possess a playmaking defense and Mark Sanchez is emerging as a legitimate contending quarterback evidenced by his game tying drive last week in the final minute.  The game’s biggest intrigue comes from the fact that it is a matchup up of the Ryan brothers, Rex and Rob, who control each team’s defense.  The game will be competitive but the Jets will make more plays in the end to win.

COLTS (-7) over BENGALS

The Bengals are playing the early game Sunday after a deflating home loss Monday night to the Steelers.  Now they have to deal with a short week, travelling to Indianapolis, and dealing with Peyton Manning.  The Colts are coming off a road loss themselves so they should be razor sharp early in this game.  Carson Palmer has been very turnover prone this season and that won’t likely change this weekend. 

(It is funny that the Bengals, a team that features so many former Cowboys, are considered a talented underachiever.  Jerry Jones must have an eye for those like no one else in the NFL.)

OVER/UNDER

JAGUARS/TEXANS OVER 49.5

This is a matchup of two awful defensive backfields and two teams who each feature at least one elite skill position player.  Matt Schaub has been pretty ordinary since his red-hot start this season but he should have a field day against a miserable Jaguars secondary.  Meanwhile Houston is struggling to replace Demeco Ryans at middle linebacker and that doesn’t bode well with Maurice Jones-Drew carrying the ball and Marcedes Lewis’s emergence as an elite tight end.

Pac-10 Primer

*This article appears on www.backsportspage.com where I will be contributing as the Pac-10 basketball writer this season

The 2009-2010 men’s basketball season was historically bad for the Pacific 10 Conference.  For most of last season it seemed likely that only the conference tournament champion receiving an invitation to the NCAA tournament, unthinkable for one of the power conferences.  Ultimately two teams qualified, the regular season champion Cal Golden Bears and the tournament champion Washington Huskies.  Although each qualifying team won at least one game in the tournament, there was no hiding the notion that the Pac-10 was the worst major basketball conference in America. 

There are several reasons that explain the dramatic drop in quality of play from last year’s Pac-10 teams.  Following several years of producing a multitude of NBA talent, the league had merely one player taken in the first round of the draft and only two players drafted at all.  There is also the dramatic coaching turnover that has happened in the last several seasons.  Seven of the league’s coaches have are less than three years into their current position.  It all added up to a sub par year for one of the nation’s elite leagues but at the same time the lost season served as a crucial building block for the future of so many of the teams in the conference. 

This year will be a return to prominence for the suddenly downtrodden conference.  Here is a look ahead and who and what to watch for in the 2010-2011 Pac-10 basketball season:

2010-2011 PAC-10 PRESEASON RANKINGS

1. WASHINGTON – All that could keep the Huskies from winning the regular season title would be a return of the complacency that plagued the squad early in the 2010 season.
2. ARIZONA – After snapping the nation’s longest consecutive NCAA tournament appearance streak Sean Miller and the Wildcats should return to the head of the class in the Pac-10.
3. UCLA – After the defection of several disappointing high-profile recruits Ben Howland will be hungry to prove last season’s turmoil was a fluke.
4. WASHINGTON STATE – The Cougars return all five starters and will lean heavily on their star backcourt tandem of Klay Thompson and Reggie Moore.
5. ARIZONA STATE – The conference’s resident tortoise continues to be a major presence with Herb Sendek’s grind-it-out style.
6. CALIFORNIA – The Golden Bears are rebuilding but Mike Montgomery’s success in his brief time on campus has attracted the kind of recruits that will keep California competitive.
7. STANFORD – Johnny Dawkins is in year three of his tenure at Stanford and again will have an inexperienced but highly talented roster that will count on Jeremy Green to score in bunches.
8. OREGON STATE – The first brother-in-law Craig Robinson is counting on big things from senior leading scorer Calvin Haynes as he continues to build depth in the program.
9. USC – No one has been as good at making the most of his roster as Kevin O’Neill in his two stops in the Pac-10 and this year he will need to call on that very same magic.
10. OREGON – Dana Altman has his work cut out for him as the Ducks were forced to cancel a team trip to Italy over the summer on account of only having six available players.

 PRESEASON ALL PAC-10 TEAM

FIRST TEAM

G – Isaiah Thomas, WASHINGTON

The 5’8 shooting guard has worked hard to develop as a distributor and got his preseason off to a promising start by dishing out 11 assists against St. Martin’s University in an exhibition game.

G – Klay Thompson, WASHINGTON STATE

Klay is the son of former “Showtime” Laker Mychal Thompson is the conference’s most gifted scorer and has been tabbed by some as a dark-horse candidate for national player of the year honors.

G – Jeremy Green, STANFORD

The Austin, Texas native teamed with current Knick rookie sensation Landry Fields last season and will take on even more of a scoring burden this year with a young supporting cast that includes six freshmen.

F – Derrick Williams, ARIZONA

Williams is the reigning Pac-10 Freshman of the Year averaged 15.1 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game in his inaugural campaign through the conference.

F – Matthew Bryan-Amaning, WASHINGTON

This late-blooming England native played for England in the Eurobasket tournament this summer in a reserve role and acquitted himself nicely averaging 10.2 points per game in his five exhibition appearances.

SECOND TEAM

G – Reggie Moore, WASHINGTON STATE

Moore is one in a long line of Rainier Beach High standouts to excel in the Pac-10 and found his way on to All-Pac 10 team as a freshman last season.

G – Malcolm Lee, UCLA

With Michael Roll gone the 6’5 Malcolm Lee will be depended on to score from the wing for Ben Howland’s Bruins and is moving back to his more natural position of shooting guard this season in order to facilitate his scoring responsibilities.

G – Ty Abbott, ARIZONA STATE

Abbott started slow last season while recuperating from a knee injury but finished furiously with averages of 15.2 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game in conference play.  In his career the Sun Devils are 37-12 when Ty scores in double figures.

F – Reeves Nelson, UCLA

Nelson fits the “junk yard dog” mold that Ben Howland cherishes in his post players at UCLA and with a year under his belt should improve on last season’s solid averages of 11.1 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game in conference play.

F – Josh Smith, UCLA

The king-sized freshman was UCLA’s biggest addition this offseason both figuratively and literally but after a summer of strict dieting and thrice daily cardiovascular workouts Josh will debut for the Bruins looking much different than he did in the spring weighing well over 300 pounds.

ALL-DEFENSE

G – Venoy Overton, WASHINGTON

Overton is the catalyst off the bench for the Huskies and simply harasses ballhandlers to the point he can get himself in trouble picking up cheap fouls at great distances from the opponents’ basket.

G – Jorge Gutierrez, CALIFORNIA

Gutierrez is easy to spot on the floor because of his signature black ponytail but also stands out for his energy and effort that terrorizes Pac-10 foes.

F – Justin Holiday, WASHINGTON

The lesser known older brother of current Sixers point guard Jrue Holiday bothers opponents with his quickness and length and can cover any position from 1 through 4 for the Huskies.

F – DeAngelo Casto, WASHINGTON STATE

What Casto may lack in height he makes up for with wingspan and timing to lead the conference last season with 2.2 blocks per game.

C – Alex Stepheson, USC

The Tar Heel transfer uses his imposing height to block and change shots around the rim for the rebuilding Trojans.

TOP NEWCOMERS

G – Gary Franklin, CALIFORNIA

G – Tyler Lamb, UCLA

F – Terrence Ross, WASHINGTON

F – Keala King, ARIZONA STATE

C – Josh Smith, UCLA

(Franklin, Lamb, and King were all teammates last season for Mater Dei High School)

BEST NON-CONFERENCE MATCHUPS

Arizona at Kansas, 11/27

Arizona gets tested right away with a trip to Allen Fieldhouse on Thanksgiving weekend.

Oregon vs. Duke, 11/27

Dana Altman will need to muster all of his magic to keep from getting blown off his home floor in Kyle Singler’s homecoming game.

Washington State vs. Kansas State, 12/03

Klay Thompson will get a chance to go head to head with fellow All-American candidate Jacob Pullen.

Stanford at Butler, 12/18

Former Duke standout Johnny Dawkins leads his Cardinal into historic Hinkle Fieldhouse to battle the team that took his alma mater to the wire last April.

UCLA vs. St. John’s, 02/05

This game marks Steve Lavin’s return to Pauley Pavilion for the first time on the opposing bench.

Coping with Delusion

Every once in a while, usually when my favorite teams are losing, I think of how funny it is I can be so mad at a bunch of guys I don’t know.  Since becoming somewhat of an adult I have mostly detached myself from the notion that my support means even the slightest bit to any team, coach, or player.  “Fan” is short for “fanatic” and it is pretty creepy when you think just how “fanatical” the behavior of sports’ fans really is. 

For instance, Emmitt Smith was my favorite athlete as a kid and even last summer at the age of twenty-five I proudly watched as he was enshrined in the Hall of Fame this summer capping off his brilliant football career.  Here’s the thing: Emmitt has no idea who I am.  Really, I have no idea who he is either.  There is no honest way for me to know if he is a person worthy of admiration since he and I have never even been in the same room.  Even if he did know who I was, why would he care what I thought?  Not for one millisecond of my life have I had any decision making power that would directly effect him or any other prominent athlete.  However, the delusion that because he meant so much to me as a little kid somehow translated to him caring what I thought too is precisely what being a sports fan is all about.

Once I became an adult rational thinking took over—for the most part anyways.  I’m never quite as thrilled or quite as deflated anymore at the outcomes of games since I know that ultimately no matter what is won or lost, I personally won or lost nothing at all.  This is what I have to keep telling myself in the fall of 2010.  My three favorite football teams in no particular are the Dallas Cowboys (1-7), Texas Longhorns (4-5), and Washington Huskies (3-6).  Coincidentally, they all suck out loud this season.  Part of me thinks the Texas Rangers are to blame for whatever cosmic forces had to shift to allow their underdog run to the World Series this year.  But then the more logical part of me realizes that neither success nor failure is permanent.

For the Huskies, I’m afraid to say the disappointing season is nothing new or really all that surprising.  Each year since I showed up on campus in 2003 they have been an embarrassment with only subtle variations in just how embarrassing.  The whole time I was in school there I always heard a lot about how good we used to be before I showed up.  Which I learned really meant in the early nineties before a run of being pretty good leading up to another stellar season (2000) before the walls came crumbling down on the Husky mini-dynasty.  Well, here we are with their third coach in seven seasons and the team still, for lack of a better word, blows. 

I’m not an idiot.  I realize based on the miniscule amount of local talent that Washington never really should have been any good in the first place.  The Huskies by all logic should be about the type of team they have been since I showed up.  We are talking about an ENTIRE state that produces somewhere around fifteen Division I football scholarship signees per year.  If it weren’t for that overachieving Don James people wouldn’t expect so much from a team located in an area essentially devoid of competitive talent.  Even when they were good they got popped for improper benefits (Billy Joe Hobert) or lack of institutional control (Rick Neuheisel and his band of outlaws).  Thus, the failure of my alma mater is by far the easiest to stomach.

On the contrary, Texas has no legitimate excuse to ever have a losing season.  That sounds a little absurd with all of the variables that factor into college football but it’s an absolute fact.  Combining a rich and football frenzied local talent base, limitless wealthy donors stemming from an enormous amount of ex-students (they don’t call it the alumni club because they are happy to take money from anyone who has ever been registered for a class), and state of the art facilities the Longhorns really have no valid excuses to be bad.  And yet they are bad, historically bad.  Save a few miserable drops by Nebraska they would be 3-6 right now with six consecutive losses.  They could (and my guess is will) be the first team in the brief BCS era to go from the title game one season to failing to become bowl eligible the next season. 

No one who followed the team in the nineties can say they haven’t seen this before however.  Really, it is the nature of college football.  All the teams in Texas’s situation go through these slides just like the business cycle in the real world.  If things get too bad then there is just a regime change and the ship keeps on moving.  The part no one ever can predict is when exactly the tide will turn that sets off a chain of events that cause smashing success or floundering in failure.  Sadly, with Texas it is hard to tell if this is a mere bump in the road or just the tip of the iceberg.  After Florida State had its run of fourteen straight top four finishes the Seminoles have not even approached a return to that status.  Again, after nine straight ten win seasons it seems absurd, but the historical precedent is there for the good times to be on hold in Austin for a while.

Possibly the most hopeless story is that of the Dallas Cowboys.  What makes the situation the most hopeless of the three mentioned is that this is the only team exclusively manned by paid professionals.  As I stated in the previous paragraph, when things fall apart in the business of sports the leadership is shuffled just like in all other industries.  However, for the Dallas Cowboys, how do you fire the boss?

By any measure, Jerry Jones is one of the most successful businessmen in the country.  Part of that is his tenacity in going after what he wants and his steadfast belief that he can get any job done.  It is understandable how he might feel this way as a self made billionaire.  However, he can no longer sell Cowboys fans that he knows what is best for his team on the football field.  He certainly knows how to promote the team, just not how to build it.  Most general managers work tirelessly to succeed in building a championship team.  Jerry is so consumed by the stadium that he cannot possibly devote the time necessary to properly evaluate personnel.  That, however, is his right.  His skin is in the game, not mine.  Of all the sordid opinions of the Cowboys out there only one truly matters, and that is the opinion of Jerry Jones since he is in direct control of the fate of the franchise he bought and paid for over twenty years ago.

2010 has been one of the least enjoyable football seasons ever.  However, all things considered, things could be way worse in life than liking crappy football teams.  Just like the old proverb says, this too shall pass.  And it will, but for this particular fall the Huskies, Longhorns and Cowboys  shall most likely pass to the other team.

weekly line-up

November is my last chance to post records above .500 in every category on the season.  This whole publicly picking games thing is a lot harder than it seems.  Hopefully my season’s worth of misfires has taught me something

LAST WEEK

NCAA: 2-2

NFL: 1-3

OVER/UNDER: 0-1

SEASON

NCAA: 16-16

NFL: 14-18

OVER/UNDER: 5-2-1

Just like I said last week, you never mess with Mike Riley’s Beavers coming off a bye week and a loss.  However, anyone can mess with Greg Robinson’s defense at Michigan including numerous high school teams.  Rich Rodriguez may not get fired but I can tell you without a hint of uncertainty that Robinson’s days are numbered in Ann Arbor.  As for Utah they got caught looking ahead to this week’s showdown with TCU.  The good news is that they were able to survive by forcing five turnovers to beat a desperate Air Force team.  The bad news was that they allowed 13 points in the final quarter to cough up an easy cover. 

Crazy things happen in the NFL.  The 49ers suck in San Francisco, but they’re awesome in London.  They may want to consider a permanent relocation.  The Bills broke their season long pattern and actually played fairly well two weeks in a row.  Just well enough to cover but not well enough to win which is kind of their best case scenario presently.  The biggest surprise was the Packers rolling into the new Meadowlands and blanking the Jets in a stunning role reversal based on each team’s body of work.

NCAA

UTAH (+5) over TCU

This is Utah’s last crack at the Horned Frogs before moving on to the Pac-12.  In the brief history of the rivalry the Utes have won every matchup played in their home stadium and three of the last four overall.  It is doubtful that Utah has forgotten the shellacking they took in Fort Worth last fall to the tune of 55-28, dashing their hopes of a second straight conference title.  TCU has flown under the radar this season for a team that is handing out savage beatings on a weekly basis.  This game however will be the Horned Frogs first true road test of the season having played lesser opponents in their first three matchups away from home. 

 OREGON (-35) over WASHINGTON

 The hopes for the Huskies were slim to none even before the news that Jake Locker would be held out with broken ribs.  Oregon has become my favorite team to watch in all of college football.  It is fast-break football at its finest.  Meanwhile the Huskies have been greatly overmatched this season when facing elite offenses (Nebraska, Arizona, Stanford).  The Huskies biggest weakness on each side of the ball is at the line of scrimmage and the Ducks will expose that all day long this Saturday.  I realize the spread seems pretty big at 35 but this could very well be a 35 point game at halftime.  May God have mercy on my Washington Huskies.

NEBRASKA (-17.5) over IOWA STATE

Yet another week for “T-Magic” to shine against an Iowa State team known to give up points in bunches.  Roy Helu, Jr.’s stellar game last week really puts the Cyclones in a quandary because the Cornhuskers have shown that both aspects of their deadly read option can beat people.  Consider this: in Iowa State’s four losses this season they have allowed an average of just over 275 rushing yards per game.  Of all those teams (Iowa, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma), Nebraska has the most vaunted running attack.  It should be a track meet for the visitors in Ames this weekend.

ARIZONA (+9) over STANFORD

This game marks the return of Nick Foles after a two week absence from action.  It also matches up arguably the two best NFL prospects in the Pac-10 (Matt Barkley certainly deserves consideration) as well as the conference’s two most fiery coaches.  When Foles is at the helm for the Wildcats they tend to control the clock because of his superb completion percentage.  Part of what allows Foles to be so accurate is his quick release and excellent internal stopwatch on when to get the ball out.  Stanford will find that Arizona puts up a much better fight than the lowly Washington Huskies (see above) did last week.

NFL

BUCCANEERS (+9) over FALCONS

The Bucs are officially this year’s “out of nowhere” team in the NFC.  Who knew that Josh Freeman was the second coming of Ben Roethlisberger (minus all the sex offender tendencies—hopefully)?  The Falcons are an excellent home team at 3-0 but the Bucs are just as good on the road.  Tampa Bay saves their letdowns for their cartoonish home stadium featuring fake cannons fired from a fake pirate ship.  I said earlier in this post that I am learning a few things as the season goes along and I think one of those is to never take Raheem Morris’s bunch lightly.

PATRIOTS (-5) over BROWNS

What a shame that Colt McCoy’s jersey retirement at Texas had to be marred by a home loss to Baylor.  This weekend things may not get better for him as he faces noted quarterback tormentor Bill Belichick.  The Pats do not have one of their better defenses in terms of personnel but old Belichick still knows how to scheme with the best of them.  Also, New England’s offense is back to their old tricks of sending undersized no-names all over the field wreaking havoc on unsuspecting defenses.  If the Patriots can pack any semblance of a running game for the trip to Cleveland they will roll on Sunday.

VIKINGS (-8) over CARDINALS

In a strange turn of events I am actually rooting for Brett Favre to play well this weekend if only to halt the constant headlines related to his dong or his relationship with the soon to be unemployed Brad Childress.  One thing people could be talking about is that Ken Whisenhunt hasn’t gotten enough credit for how badly he’s managed the quarterback situation this season in Arizona.  First he shipped off whiny but effective Matt Leinart in favor of human turnover machine Derek Anderson.  Then he decided to hand the reins to undrafted free agent Max Hall.  Now he is coming back to Anderson which should work well since he shattered his confidence and embarrassed him by benching him in favor of a quarterback no one else wanted less than a year removed from lighting up the Mountain West.

GIANTS (-6.5) over SEAHAWKS

This week the Seahawks took the prudent approach of sitting the concussed Matt Hasselbeck (or Matthew as he is referred to exclusively by Seattle radio personality Bob Rondeau) against the fearsome front four of the Giants.  Instead they will be throwing Charlie Whitehurst to the wolves.  Qwest is never an easy place to win but it certainly gets easier when the sputtering offense is forced to insert their backup quarterback who has only been with the team for a few months.  If the Giants can avoid a slew of penalties from the acoustically enhanced crowd then they will have no problem covering a touchdown spread.

OVER/UNDER

BOISE STATE/HAWAII OVER 65.5

Over the last few weeks the Broncos have just been hammering helplessly overmatched conference foes to the point they are able to get ample playing time for their backups.  This weekend they should comfortably beat Hawaii but they will have to keep their foot on the accelerator as the Rainbow Warriors (which you know, sounds way tougher than calling them the Rainbows) have an explosive offense led by pony-tailed quarterback Bryant Moniz.